Yesterday we announced the analysis of the situation on the Polish market of “green” energy. Today we offer your attention the report.
According to the Ministry of Energy Poland is well ahead of the renewable energy development plans. The problem is that the Ministry estimates that, based on outdated information, without tracing dynamics of change and only looks at one of the three sectors. How far the Poland from goal for 2020?
Energy Minister Christopher Thurzhevsky urged recently from rostrum that Poland is much higher than the country needs the participation of “green” energy, which is why consumers are suffering. Earlier, the media wrote about the myth of burden means “green” energy of the Polish industry, as a result of showing that the most energy-intensive businesses pay due renewable energy is many times less than the bill for current. The cost of energy for them, considering, together with subsidies, adopted in renewable energy, has fallen over the past five years at about 24%.
The thesis of the Ministry of the preliminary heat of renewable energy development plans, unfortunately, is far from reality. In 2014 (the ministry has still not taking into account the data of journalists in 2015) attended the energy from renewable sources accounted for 11.45%, which is exactly as long as prescribed government plan. A year earlier, with the participation of renewable energy with 11.35% Poland really was ahead of the planned indicators. If this trend will occur in the next five years, Poland will not carry out the goal.
Energy Minister was not wrong, however, to mention that Poland achieves the goal – only to talk about achieving the minimum target below which Poland may damage the obligations of the European Union. This goal for Poland was 9.54% in 2014. Below the threshold, at least in the whole European Union, there is only one country – the Netherlands. The rest of the state is cross it very much. Each third country of the European Union has reached its ultimate goal, even for 2020. Among them, the vast majority of this country with Central and Eastern Europe – Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Romania, Lithuania, Estonia and Croatia.
From the thesis advancing goals for two years? This is just one sector – electricity. In the heat sector the situation is slightly better, but can worsen depending on the results of the questionnaire (which will be discussed below). But in the transport sector is a very bad situation and Poland are significantly below target. Energy Ministry in its statements and recent legislative activities focuses primarily on the electricity sector, while the other two sectors should be responsible for two-thirds of the overall goal of renewable energy in Poland in 2020 in the amount of 15%.2014: Rates slightly above the target
of “green” electricity, which is based on the Ministry, contains long-irrelevant data. It was made on the basis of Poland’s energy forecast to 2030 (PEP 2030). This way, approved by the government in 2009 is very unreliable. According to the 2030 PEP consumption of electric power in 2015 was to make 152.8 TWh, while the real figures were 161.4 TWh (according to the Polish electricity networks), or 164.4 TW (according to the Energy Market Agency). To achieve the goal of electricity Poland will, therefore, require much larger amounts of “green” energy than it is spelled out in the government plan (the so-called KPD). As can be seen in the end of the European Commission’s statistics – in 2014 instead of the substantial advance the goal (at a rate of 12.2%), Poland barely crossed it (12.4%).
2015: Significantly exceeding the goal
With this Energy Agency market follows that participation in renewable energy consumption of electric energy in 2015 year (the 13,7%) and above the target (13%). It happened thanks to a much more rapid development of wind power and wind only excellent performance of the year.
2016: Slightly below target
This yearis the situation, however, is worse. Given the very low support, coal-fired power limited biomass processing. In addition, given the continuing drought, this year could be the third in a row with a decline in the production of hydroelectric power plants. A significant increase in production (at worst wind indicators) are only wind power. At best, the production of “green” power in 2016 will remain at the previous level. Meanwhile, energy consumption increases significantly – in the first four months already at 2.18%. Growing up as targets of RES participation – this year is 13.85%. Most likely it will not be able to achieve them.
2017-2018: Significantly below target
Meanwhile, even worse is going to be 2017. Introduction to the life of the new support system will break the development of renewable energy. Will build only those facilities that will be supported at auction. One or two of the first auction be held in this year, but will cover the small amounts of energy (according to our information, it may be auctions, which have the greatest chance of biogas and solar plants). Larger auctions should be carried out only in the coming year, and shall be elected the biomass, biogas, or hybrid systems – their construction and start-up take up to two years. So, if all goes according to plan, they will only work in 2019. Meanwhile, the purpose of participation “green” energy 2017 and 2018 will grow – according from 14.68% to 15.64%.
2019: Space in 7 TWh to cover auctions
In 2019, when will begin work the plants of the first large-scale renewable energy auctions, the goal will account for 16.78%, and the production of “green” energy will continue to hover around even indicators 2015-2016. However, taking into account the 2% annual growth in energy consumption will fall to 12.6% in 2019 RES participation in the electricity sector. The output of “green” power will be 7 TWh – this annual production is necessary to contract auctions in future years. For comparison, last year’s production of biogas plants in Poland amounted to 0.8 TWh, 1.8 TWh of hydropower plants, and all plants on biomass 4.5 TWh. Much more energy produced from biomass, and 10.8 TWh given wind farm.
Heat from renewable energy sources – it’s a lottery
Prospect of the renewable energy target in the heating and cooling sector doesn’t look better. In 2014, there was reached 13.95% share of “green” heat towards basing 13.29%. The problem is that the vast majority of the sector – this is pure statistics. The government counts all goals of renewable energy biomass burned in Polish homes, even in wood ovens. Since no one is able to control, based on calculations carried out every three years, a survey of HUS. The latter institution held in January 2016. The results will be known at the end of the year. Depending on how answered about 5 thousand respondents (for about 13600000 households in Poland), production of “green” heat in Poland may change significantly. Differences not trivial, since this type of renewable energy is responsible for more than 60% of the total Polish goal.
Large enough renewable energy deficit of Poland in the transport sector. Spaces are not filling biofuels. As a result, instead of the planned on 2014 7.48%, Poland has reached only 5.67%, and the direction of change is negative. Poland hasn’t received authorization provisions of the growth of II generation of national product biofuels (waste), and without that further growth will not be possible in the segment, as according to new directive in 2020 biofuels, the participation and the transport sector can’t exceed 7 percent to 10% of the total purpose. The adoption of the relevant law in the list of postponed legislative work in the last quarter of this year.
Meanwhile, according to our interlocutor, who is engaged in the biofuel market in Poland without very quick and decisive action of the Ministry, Poland doesn’t reach the goal of 10% participation of “green” energy in transport, which is mandatory for every state member of the EU. Not in favor of Poland and accepted in a transitional period. According to it until 2020, the sale of gasoline with the addition thereto of 10% ethanol requires sales to customers as a fuel with 5% bio-fuel. Meanwhile, fuel stations and distribution centers don’t have individual storage to the last type of fuel. Besides the logistics of distribution and sales of the two types of gasoline (including a premium gasoline, then, actually, three) too expensive. As a result, in fact, all sellers in country offer customers only gasoline with 5% ethanol.
In Poland, there is also no proper supervision on biofuel market and European producers complained to Poland European Commission, since their assessment of Poland is the huge amount of biofuels that were allegedly intended to implement “green” goals at the wholesale level, and later were sold to customers . From the point of view of the target can be problematic as it is very important for the government and the state budget, sealing the western and southern borders to the influx of fuels to the gray zone. When their sale will be taken into account in the balance of consumption, Poland will require much larger volumes of biofuels to accomplish the goal for 2020.
According to EU directive state member of the EU, which itself doesn’t carry out the requirements of the participation of “green” energy for 2020 should secure such participation through statistical transfers from other countries. The benefit for Poland can operate fact that many countries need to step their goals, but the whole European Union is likely to be to dispose of excess eco-energy, which will be traded. This is keep the prices within the transfer, but the overall quota, depending on the final release 2020 can be estimated at millions or even billions of zlotys.
The government should make a serious review of previous priorities of RES support policies, its effectiveness, and provide real opportunities to achieve the goals, broken down by sector. The more that the European Community has conditions to the next goal – 27% share of “green” energy to 2030, and then, obviously, will come next. The fact of advancing the development of renewable energy in the majority of its neighbors Poland through failure reach the goals for 2020 Poland could lose the sympathy of many allies.